S&P warns on state stamp duty bust

Monday 12 October 2026

State budgets are the biggest losers from what is shaping up to be the nation’s greatest housing correction in modern history.

The biggest impact won’t come from falling dwelling prices but from a collapse in sales volume.

According to Cotality, national home sales fell by 17.4% over the three months to September, including:

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.